Weather experts are warning of a greater risk of high temperatures, reduced rainfall and pressure on water supplies as the country enters the warmer months. South Africa could face a hotter and drier summer as a powerful climate pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about water security, farming and the health of vulnerable residents.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has forecast that below-normal rainfall is more likely across much of the country, while temperatures are expected to be above normal. Its outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 points to a similar pattern. The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that the developing El Niño could strengthen further towards the end of 2026. However, scientists caution that the exact effects will vary from one region to another.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that develops when the surface waters of parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This changes wind patterns and the movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world.
The opposite phase is called La Niña. It occurs when the same parts of the Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual. La Niña can favour wetter conditions in parts of southern Africa, but it does not guarantee good rainfall everywhere. Periods when neither pattern is dominant are known as neutral conditions.
How does climate change affect the situation?
El Niño and climate change are not the same thing. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle, while human-driven climate change is causing long-term global warming, mainly through greenhouse gas emissions. However, the two can work together. When an El Niño event adds to already rising global temperatures, the result can be even hotter conditions. Higher temperatures also increase evaporation and can place greater pressure on water supplies, crops, livestock and people working outdoors. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the developing event could push global temperatures higher, although the amount of warming and its local effects remain uncertain.
What can residents expect over the next three months?
From November 2026 to January 2027, the national outlook favours warmer-than-normal conditions and below-normal rainfall across much of South Africa. This raises the risk of heatwaves, dry spells and increased pressure on water resources. For Johannesburg and surrounding communities, residents should prepare for hot days and follow local weather forecasts. A seasonal outlook does not mean that rain will stop completely. Thunderstorms and heavy downpours can still occur, sometimes causing local flooding.
